EUR/USD Outlook: Cautionary ECB Drags Euro Near 1.15

ByBarbara Byrne

Oct 19, 2021

This month, the EUR/USD has often struggled to maintain a price below the 1.1550 region. As a result, experts at Rabobank maintain their conviction that the EUR/USD will continue to decline in the near to medium term. On a three-month horizon, the EUR/USD is still trading at 1.15.

In the short term, experts believe that the present downturns in the USD are corrective, and they believe that the USD will keep rising in the medium run. Whereas the latest sell-off in the EUR shows that the currency may be more vulnerable to hawkish comments from ECB officials in the run-up to the next ECB session, the conservative posture of the central bank’s monetary guidance indicates that there is still an opportunity for a coordinated rebound in the EUR.

On the border, the approaching French presidential race next year, as well as tensions among the EU and Poland and Hungary over the rule of law, might all have an impact on the Euro’s future performance in the near term. Analysts are sticking with their initial three-month projection of 1.15 EUR/USD.

Overview Of The Technical Aspects


The EUR/USD pair approached the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its most recent daily decline, which was at 1.1670. However, the pair only made a modest retreat from the level. Because chart patterns have moved into positive territory and are holding their bullish slopes, the daily chart indicates that the duo is in a bullish trend. In addition, the pair is trading above the slightly bearish 20 SMA, which is converging with the 23.6 percent retracement of the same dip at 1.1615.

The 4-hour data indicates that the duo is presently trading above both its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the lesser moving average crossing above the longer moving average, indicating greater purchasing interest in the market. During this time, chart patterns are reversing from overbought levels, but they are still far from suggesting a sustained collapse in the short future. A breach of the daily peak should result in a continuation of the upward trend in the following trading sessions. Support levels are 1.1615, 1.1525, and 1.1570. Resistance levels: 1.1670, 1.1750, and 1.1715 

Overview Of The Fundamentals

The EUR/USD touched a new three-week peak of 1.1669 as the Greenback remained on the back leg in the global economy. The financial markets are in a stronger form on Tuesday, reflecting a general increase in risk sentiment to the harm of the US dollar. During this time, the 10-year Treasury note yield has remained stable, hovering just below 1.60 percent.

On the macroeconomic agenda so far, there has been a decrease in EU Construction Activity in August, which fell by 1.3% month on month after registering a slight 0.1% increase the earlier month. Housing starts in the United States declined by 1.6% in September, while construction licenses fell by 7.7%, according to the latest data. During the American session, authorities from the Federal Reserve System of the United States and the European Central Bank will deliver addresses.

The information provided on this website should not be interpreted as financial or investment guidance and may not embody the perspectives of Forex Tools Trader or its contributors. Forex Tools Trader does not hold responsibility for any financial setbacks experienced due to the use of information provided on this website by its writers or patrons. It's essential to thoroughly investigate and make informed decisions before entering any financial commitments, particularly concerning third-party reviews, presales, and similar ventures. The content you are viewing may be sponsored content, read our full disclaimer to learn more.

Don't Miss Out!

Artificial Intelligence Trading Software

CypherMindHQ Trading Robot, OpenAI (ChatGPT4) Enabled - The Best AI Trading System Ever Created

Sign Up

Try Crypto Engine With a Trusted Broker